An extraordinary interview by Bruno Maçães (@MacaesBruno) on The New Statesman to a top Russian political scientist with great influence on the Kremlin’s foreign policy.
Here Sergey Karaganov shows Russia’s hand in this conflict and it is a threatening one.
Some key points:
Ukraine’s invasion was inevitable under Putin’s vision. “Maybe three or four years from now”. He preferred to fight it now in “somebody else’s territory” [rather than on Russian territory itself]
“the real war is against the Western expansion.”
“This war is a kind of proxy war between the West and the rest – Russia being, as it has been in history, the pinnacle of “the rest” – for a future world order. The stakes of the Russian elite are very high – for them it is an existential war.”
On the Ukraine resistance – “I am not sure whether there is a massive civilian resistance as you suggest, rather than just young men joining the army.”
“I don’t know whether Ukraine will survive, because it has a very limited, if any, history of statehood, and it doesn’t have a state-building elite. Maybe something will grow from below, but it’s an open question… We shall see… This war – or military operation; however you call it – will decide. Maybe the Ukrainian nation will be born.
“Russia will be a loser in this war – but also Ukraine and Europe.”
“The big losers are, in addition to Ukraine, Europe, especially if it continues with this mysterious zest for independence from Russian energy. But China is clearly the victor of this whole affair… I think the biggest loser will be Ukraine; a loser will be Russia; a great loser will be Europe; the United States will lose somewhat, but still it could very well survive as a huge island over the ocean; and the big victor is China.
Russia will become weaker vs China.
“I am very concerned about the overwhelming economic predominance of China over the next decade. People like me have been saying precisely [that] we have to solve the Ukraine problem, we have to solve the Nato problem, so that we can be in a strong position vis-à-vis China.”
Asked if “this is a moment of supreme danger for Russia?””I would say yes, this is an existential war. If we do not win, somehow, then I think we will have all kinds of unforeseen political repercussions which are much worse than at the beginning of the 1990s. But I believe that we will avoid that, first, because Russia will win, whatever that victory means, and second, because we have a strong and tough regime, so in any event, or if the worst happens, it will not be the dissolution of the country or collapse. I think it will be closer to a harsh authoritarian regime than to the dissolution of the country. But still, defeat is unthinkable.”
However what he tries to define as vitory seems impossible.“I don’t think that, even if we conquered all of Ukraine and all the military forces of Ukraine surrendered, it would be a victory, because then we will be left with the burden of a devastated country…”
If Russia loses, political consequences will be devastating. But when asked to define defeat the answer is: “I don’t know what defeat would be.”
