Os superspreading events e a propagação do coronavirus – porque não começar com medidas preventivas destes eventos antes de usar logo a bazuca do confinamento geral? Muitos surtos de coronavirus, em diversos locais, resultaram de eventos especiais, que reuniram muitas pessoas – o que os epidemiologistas designam de “superspreading events” (SSE). Pelos dados que vamos… Read More »
Covid-19 – Evolução na Suécia vs Portugal Por curiosidade, comparei a evolução da epidemia na Suécia e em Potugal. O número de habitantes é semelhante, embora a densidade seja muito distinta. Vale o que vale. É uma comparação simples. Considerei apenas os indicadores Novos Casos e Mortes, dia a dia. Dados da worldometers. Como é… Read More »
Great interview with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya. An honest and candid view of what we know and do not know about this epidemic. Dr. Bhattacharya is professor of medicine at Stanford University and research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He co-authored with a colleague from Stanford a remarkable opinion article in the Wall… Read More »
Hoje, saí do confinamento para passear o cão. Os trabalhos agrícolas não podem parar, sob risco de se perder todo um ano de esforço. As pessoas que trabalham o campo não têm outras fontes de rendimento. A Primavera é um período particularmente crítico para a viticultura. Exige muita atenção, cuidados e trabalho, para o crescimento… Read More »
Lockdown: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us? Say Carl Heneghan and Director and Carl Heneghan, Senior Fellow of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford “Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow… Read More »
Open Letter to Chancellor Merkel Dear Chancellor, As Emeritus of the Johannes-Gutenberg-University in Mainz and longtime director of the Institute for Medical Microbiology, I feel obliged to critically question the far-reaching restrictions on public life that we are currently taking on ourselves in order to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus. It is expressly… Read More »
Atlas Shrugged invertido – shutdown forçado pelos governos.Alguns pensamentos de refugiado no campo, atravessando os montes que Miguel Torga calcorreava para manter a lucidez, tentando manter também a minha. “A velhice é isto: ou se chora sem motivo, ou os olhos ficam secos de lucidez”, escreveu Torga, no dia 1 de Maio de 1974, poucos… Read More »
Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464 In this article on the WSJ two Stanford University professors of medicine conclude:”A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and… Read More »
A thought provoking article from a top epidemiologist from Stanford University, John Ioannidis. “A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data” “The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.”https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ His conclusion: “If we… Read More »