Como vão ser usados os apoios do fundo europeu de recuperação por cada governo ditará a sustentabilidade da retoma e da competitividade das economias.
Não são as diferenças no volume das ajudas que me preocupam, mas a forma como serão usadas.
O governo português vai derreter grande parte dos 15 mM euros dos apoios em projectos desastrosos – TAP, NB, CP, etc… Pouco restará para apoiar a economia produtiva e competitiva, sobretudo as empresas de bens transaccionáveis, de que depende o nosso equilíbrio externo (para mais, agora com as receitas do turismo em queda). E vai evitar fazer qualquer reforma estrutural, como é seu costume. Se pudesse, ainda revertia mais alguma coisa.
Entretanto, a Alemanha vai usar os apoios na ajuda a empresas viáveis para as tornar mais competitivas. E fará as reformas necessárias.
As empresas portuguesas vão ver os custos de contexto piorar. Ficarão ainda em maior desvantagem na concorrência internacional. Portugal vai agravar o fosso de produtividade para as economias mais avançadas ficar ainda mais longe dos níveis de criação de riqueza europeus.
Esta reflexão foi motivada por ler este excelente artigo do Economist
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/government-handouts-threaten-europes-single-market
Excerptos:
“The dangers of Europe’s bail-outs”
“In normal times such state aid is all but banned by the European Union to ensure a level playing field for firms across the bloc.
The rules have been quietly shelved as Europe grapples with covid-19. Giving governments a temporary reprieve was unavoidable as national exchequers battle to stave off depression. But it also carries long-term dangers.
It is not hard to see the harm that free-flowing state money could do. Germany represents a quarter of the bloc’s gdp but nearly half of its state aid, because its buoyant public finances allow it to be generous. Tough luck if you are a company in Spain or Italy where tighter budgets mean smaller handouts. Politicians usually favour certain companies—famous flag-carriers instead of scrappy low-cost airlines, say. And the bail-outs invariably come with nationalist strings…
Most important, all bail-outs need to be carefully policed. This means ensuring that companies are not using public cash to run large losses or to pay for their expansion plans once the economy opens up.
… there should be rigorous enforcement of rules that encourage firms to repay loans and buy back government stakes quickly by banning them from paying dividends and bonuses. Bail-outs are taking place everywhere. But in Europe they are especially dangerous, because they can undermine economic integration and encourage politicians’ inexhaustible appetite to meddle in industry. Creating a giant, open and competitive market has been one of Europe’s great achievements. In the rush to help business it must not be eroded.”